Horserace thingamajig: TCS still solid

The GOP field is self-destructing, and hooooowwww

Here’s my current TCS rankings:

  1. Sarah Palin (100) – All the right moves – the bus trip is outstanding, the Paul Revere hilarity smoked out more jackwagons than even I could have imagined, and silly little people are nipping at her heels.
  2. Tim Pawlenty (85) – Pawlenty will never be Palin and never score 100 on the TCS, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. I’m big on Pawlenty, and Eric’s even bigger – he sent me a long piece RE T-Paw’s policy proposals, and they’re hella-good – unfortunately, z’Eric didn’t include z’link, so he’ll have to supply it in z’comments.\
  3. Herman Cain (75) – Cain’s foundering, flubbing and blundering. It’s early and his mistakes are correctable, but they’re turning into an eerie series. HotAir was blowing up the latest one today re 2nd Amendment – not good. The HA poster was Jazz Shaw, my least-likely-to-agree with as a rule, and Shaw gives Cain the benefit of the doubt, but he can’t keep fucking up like this.
  4. Michelle Bachmann (70) – Bachmann’s plummeting with me. If Ed Rollins is still employed by her by the next time I do a horserace rundown, she’ll be below 50 and have lost all support from me. To catch you up if you don’t follow this shit like Taylor Swift’s Twitter account, Bachmann hired Huck’s old hit-man (and yes, Reagan’s campaign manager from 1984) and he immediately started bashing Sarah Palin, calling her unserious etc. Fuck him, and Bachmann better get her head on straight in a big damn hurry. I’m not orthodox when it comes to other criticizing Palin, but Bachmann’s in no position to be going after z’Cuda in this manner – I love the idea of punching up, but just as Chuck Berry learned the very hard way as Jerry Lee Lewis walked off-stage with his piano on fire and the audience having a collective orgasm, no one follows the killah. In this case, Bachmann ain’t the killah.
  5. Mitt Romney (70) – Give the boring white guy that no one’s excited about credit – he’s not screwing up too much, and he’s not bashing Palin. This is called time-biding, which is impressive enough for me to actually remember putting him in here this time.
  6. Rick Santorum (50) – I listened to him on the last hour of Rush today, and he was ok. I felt bad for him because Rush spent the entire show talking about Palin (something he never does), so Santorum was pretty much an afterthought. Santorum, fwiw, cannot win against Fred-6.
  7. Newt – (0) – Nope, not even 1 point.
  8. Ron Paul – (0) – Nope.
  9. John Huntsman – (0) – Nope.
  10. Rick Perry, Chris Christie and other guys who may or may not run depending on how bored they are – no comment on them for now.
How do I see this playing out? Speaking as an observer more than a Palinista, I say it’s her nomination to win or lose. If she opts out, all in for T-Paw at this point. The man is doing and saying the correct (and difficult) things, which I respect. I like Cain, but I see nightmares coming based on his early, post-debate appearances. Here are my odds, based solely on my hunches:
  • Romney – Even
  • Cuda – 5:4
  • T-Paw – 3:2
  • Bachmann – 10:1
They’re the only ones worth oddsing for now. If Palin throws in, that will change in a big damn hurry, making it a three-person race, with possibly a gentlman’s agreement between Palin and T-Paw to take down Mitt, putting T-Paw under Palin on the ticket. I’m bad at that kind of forecasting, though – would prefer Palin/Liz Cheney, honestly.
TCS – The ‘Cuda Scale, fwiw.

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I'm King B, the originator of the Jellywhite lyrical style and god's own crunk.

2 Responses to Horserace thingamajig: TCS still solid

  1. dwh says:

    Strictly from horse race observation:

    Cain has shown some aptitude to sway primary voters. Probably helps that he had a radio show to sharpen his rhetorical skills and the ability to connect with folks using only his voice. His missteps don’t strike me as disqualifying (I think the disqualification bar is shockingly high but somewhat understandable given how many times candidates must speak to the public). Don’t underestimate Cain’s ability to cripple Romney’s business experience from a populist perspective: “I created and sustained jobs, Mitt became rich by eliminating them to enrich his shareholders.”

    In sum, he’s made a nice splash and has ceiling remaining.

    Palin must change minds to win, not just sway undecideds. Uphill battle IMO.

    Don’t know much about T-paw, but his candidacy seems to have been embraced with a collective “Meh.” Like Romney, laying in the weeds for now is probably fine as long as they raise money and build campaign infrastruture. Tpaw will take less friendly fire than Romney.

    Sanatorum cannot win the primary nor could he even if the only other candidate can from the Log Cabin wing.

    Stealth good week for Ron Paul, whose formerly unwelcome views are now trending as popular Republican doctrine (isolationist FP, ending Medicare ~a la Ryan plan). Also too, Rand’s speech on Patriot Act was bold beautiful.

    Jonah Goldberg made an observation a few weeks back that I liked: Imagine the primary debate between anti-Fed reserve Paul vs. fmr regional Fed Chair Cain. Hope that happens.

    Newt had a better week by virtue of being out of the country on a cruise.

    Still trying to figure out Bachman’s brand but hard to ignore her upside: She shares Palin’s firebrand persona, has decent campaign infrastructure and $$, and acts like she wants to be President.

    You may have to add Guiliani and Pataki (T Boone’s candidate!) to the mix next week.

  2. Eric says:

    Here is a good rundown of the Pawlenty policy proposals announced this week.–20110607

    It should be noted that he is the only current candidate who has put up any kind of real plan. I’m going to try to put together something that breaks his plan down into bite sized pieces and illustrates all the moving parts and how they work together (wish I was an accomplished infograph designer).

    Here is the highlight reel of his plan’s basics, with an overall goal of achieving 5% year over year GDP growth for a decade:

    – Make the corporate tax rate an internationally competiive (but not phenomenal) 15%.
    – Flatten individual tax rates to two brackets: 10% (for individuals making under $50k and famies under $100k) and 25% (for everyone making more than that). Some tax deductions would still apply.
    – Completely eliminate taxes on capital gains, dividends, and death.
    – Massive government reductions and department cuts. “If you can find a good or service on Google, then the federal government probably doesn’t need to be doing it.” He cited the Post Office, Amtrack, Government Printing Office, and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac as programs that this paradigm could potentially apply to.
    – Apply Six Sigma efficiency principles to all branches of the federal government.
    – Constitutional Amendment that caps spending at 18% of GDP, with increased Presidential authority to freeze spending if Congress fails to pass a budget.
    – Put a sunset date on *all* federal business regulations, requiring periodic extensions by Congress if particular regulations are to remain intact.

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