The Hopeful Fall of the House Fred-6

Although people more presumably in the know claim they’re not sure if Sarah Palin is running for POTUS, I know – she’s running. She didn’t tell me this, and I didn’t read it somewhere. I just listen to what she says, watch what she does, and then – as the quote on my senior English class read – I simply sit down at a keyboard and open up a vein. As a semi-professional Palin-watcher, I’m as sure as she’s running to beat Fred-6 as I’m sure Fred-6 will run for a second term.

Before I get rolling about Palin, let me be clear: Sarah Palin running for POTUS is something I want to happen, and here is why.

The country is sort of divided right now, and that divide isn’t red v. blue, east v. west, elite v. country. Nope, it’s simply this: either you want Barack Obama to be re-elected, or you  don’t. That’s it. Whether you pay attention to the world around you or not, you should already know whether or not you will vote for this man. Nothing he can say or do should change your mind, a little more than halfway through his administration. I don’t care if the Chi-Coms and NoKos strike the country with nuclear missiles, I don’t care if the rising waters quit rising and the ones we’ve been waiting for finally arrive, or if he turns water into wine.

I don’t care.

That is the premise – take it or leave it. I don’t know one person who already doesn’t know whether or not they will vote for him, and that includes Liberals, Conservatives, Moderates, GOPers, Donkeys etc. It’s pretty simple, really. So, more than this being about Sarah Palin – it’s not – it’s about whether or not you think Fred-6 is worthy of a second term as POTUS.

With the premise established, here’s some personal exposition. I do not want him to be re-elected.

I repeat: I do not want him to be re-elected. 

My primary purpose for writing about politics is it’s something I enjoy doing. My primary purpose for writing about Sarah Palin is that she’s someone I admire. Putting the two together, my ultimate purpose is to do whatever is in my power – hovering around zero right now, yes – do ensure Fred-6 is not re-elected. If it’s not Palin that dethrones him, I do not care. Although I die on the inside saying this, if I thought Huck could beat him, he’s who I’d support. Currently – and I’ve seen nothing to change my mind on this so far – Sarah Palin is the best person to bring about the Fall of the House of Fred.

==

Having read Fred-6’s memoirs, knowing how it is he’s won elections, knowing what his political team is capable of, I also know that not one person considered an alternative to Sarah Palin so far has the means, guts, fortitude, strategy, skill or balls to do what is necessary to defeat Fred-6.

First and foremost, the coterie of Boring White Men offered as an alternative to Palin are cowards, every last one of them. The fear being smeared as racists, and they wait for Gov. Palin to strike first, and then (and only then) do they chime-in with limp wrists like the Milhouse van Houtens they are. A few bullet points as to why none of the men currently considered, no matter how Conservative, smart, etc they might be, cannot defeat Fred-6 under any circumstance, and like any good LJ blogger, I would bold the words I think are important:

  • They will crumble under the racist meme
  • They either have skeletons that are way too public, or worse, haven’t been vetted well enough to withstand the quadriennial October surprise
  • They are far too connected to one special interest or another
  • They have engaged in activities in the past or currently engage in activity that will immediately squander the Conservative base necessary to get a Republican elected
  • They are not Conservatives in the first place
  • They are already way behind the curve in terms of using social media as a medium in which to get their message out – I used to think this was trivial, but after the election of Fred-6, only a fool would continue thinking such a thing
  • Fair or not, they are boring

There is not one man considered a potential front-runner who does not fit at least three of these categories. Against most other politicians and political machines – even HRC’s – these would disqualify a candidate’s chances, but this is Fred-6 we’re talking about. So, what does that mean?

  • HRC in the Dem primary, and then John McCain in the general election were the first two opponenents Fred-6 ran against from wire-to-wire. His other opponents in prior elections dropped out after a myriad of coincedences, from unsealed divorce records to just plain bad luck
  • Fred-6 fights ugly, and his humorless, narcissistic condescension will rattle anyone who believes that certain things are beneath them. While talking points can bat back and forth, there must be someone in a debate who will use ridicule when assaulted with smug – you think Mitt’s capable of that?
  • The candidate must be equal-parts grassroots and well-funded. Like her or not, Sarah Palin is her own money-generator – no one will be able to out-raise Fred-6, but Palin has shown herself to be far shrewder with and about money than even I gave her credit for
  • Among all possible non-Palins, none are as free of the Republican National Committee as Sarah Palin – considering how great the RNC is at picking candidates who can’t win while losing elections that shouldn’t be lost, this is – more than anything else – the strongest consideration.

As we’ve talked about it IRL and mentioned him twice in z’comments, I want to discuss my friend Eric’s early choice of Tim Pawlenty, and then I’ll move on to the Palin stuff.

[FWIW, Eric himself has said that he thinks its too early to be engaging in this type of speculation and I didn’t actually interview him about this subject –it’s just something we talk about on occasion – so, if I’m projecting my neuroses on him, it’s an accident. –z’King]

I like Tim Pawlenty (wiki here), I do.

So you’re not confused, Pawlenty is the GOPer Governor of Minnesota, politically the most schizophrenic state in the country. He is a strong Conservative, an evangelical Christian and was a tax hawk running for Governor and has behaved as one while serving – the business about his using fee increases to get around ‘no new taxes’ is a legitimate concern (one that will be drummed to death by Donkeys) but he’s overall a strong guy. As a POTUS candidate – I’m not sure? Bear in mind this mini-critique has nothing to do so much with my feelings for his Conservatism (he’s a strong Conservative, duh) but how certain positions of his will be played, whether he or his supporters like it or not. You can play this game with anyone not named Barack Obama who will oppose Fred-6.

First, he’s not been vetted. When I say vetted, what do I mean? Among the people always discussed as the potential ’12 nominee, three have been thoroughy vetted, through action and deed and by the media and opposition: Palin, Romney and Gingrich. Like them or not, you know what they’ve done and where they stand. At the national level, Pawlenty has not been vetted and currently has not inserted himself enough into the national dialogue to make a vetting relevant (it’s not that difficult as Palin especically, but Newt and Huck have shown as well). The media and opposition do not vet candidates if they think they can win a primary until after the primary – one of the fears about a Palin nomination (or a Newt nomination) among the Left is that there is precious little dirt to uncover ie they’ve been to the rodeo, ridden the bull, and shot the Wrangler’s ad – we know them. When considering the Fred-6 machine’s action in the past, this is by far his biggest weakness as a potential candidate. It takes years to vet – consider how much work went into “vetting” Sarah Palin after McCain picked her – if Pawlenty was the nominee and became a threat to dethrone Fred-6, well, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Putting what you know now aside, please (please oh please) remember that before she was brutalized by the media and mishandled by the McCain camp, Palin had the highest approval rating of any governor in the country and was respected, politicall and intellectually, by those who knew her and were familiar with her, Democrats and GOPers alike.

Never underestimate the power of the term “Pro Life” when it comes to Liberal rage – Pawlenty put an apologetically Pro Life judge on the Minnesota Supreme Court – this will be far and away the biggest anti-narrative that will drive media and oppostion reports against him.

Among the things that will kill him with many Conservatives are his ethanol pushing, the aforementioned write-around regarding fees, and – like it or  not – his pushing of ultra-expensive civic stadium projects, now illustrating an incredible lack of foresight IMO; Pawlenty will be fairly critiqued and unfairly smeared as a Liberal in-Conservative-clothes for his love of massive public works projects. When opponents in the primaries can attach your name to words like “light rail,” “ehtanol” and “a nearly $1 billion public works bill that included building stadium for wealthy sports owners,” you’re going to have issues. The things that will stick – sad but true – with the media and Liberals are his evangelical Christianity, his loss in the courts regarding “unallotments” (sort of a mix of a line-item veto and an end run around the legislature to de-fund State programs).

If Pawlenty decides to run and is nominated, I will support him with everything I have, but right now, I don’t think he has a chance in hell of inspiring the Conservative and grass-roots bases that will be necessary to beat Fred-6.

==

If you’re not sure she’s running, then you’re watching the wrong show.

Ah but King B, this is wishful thinking, an exercise in projecting your own wants and wishes onto the person of Sarah Palin. Perhaps the latter is true, but nah, she’s running.

The paradox that is the cottage industry of Second-Guessing Sarah is that so many who take part in it don’t seem to follow the primary source that is the woman herself, but the secondary and tertiary sources of those who follow the woman and comment about her, or offer comments of comments about her. Although there was a time when it used to be possible to say one has read most everything that has been written about her, that day has long since passed. As a name to put in one’s writing, she’s as popular on the left as she is on the right.

I have, however, read most of the mainstream writing about her, beginning with Fred Barnes’ piece in The Weekly Standard so long ago that introduced her to the national audience of Conservatives who read TWS. I’ve read and annotated her memoir Going Rogue, and I read America by Heart the day it came out. Along with those primary sources, I’ve read The Faith and Values of Sarah Palin, Trailblazer: An Intimate Biography of Sarah Palin, The Persecution of Sarah Palin, Sarah From Alaska, and Sarah Palin: A New Kind of Leader. FWIW, I’ve not read You Betcha! The Witless Wisdom of Sarah Palin, The Lies of Sarah Palin, Going Rouge, or The Going Rouge Coloring Book.

I subscribe to her Facebook feed, her Twitter feed, I’ve read all of her op-eds, I’ve met her, I’ve seen her speak in-person once, have watched at least fifty speech she’s given (maybe a half-dozen using a Teleprompter), I regualrly read Palingates (nope, no link will be provided) to see what the other “side” is saying.

To be fair, open-minded, and not completely insulated, I’ve also read a great deal about (and written by) Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Chris Christie. I’ve not read enough to draw conclusions about Tim Pawlenty, but I’ve read enough of Christopher Hitchens to see what a certain strand of intellectuals think of Palin (hint: Hitchens called her a “chillbilly” – a low blow coming from a man who’s never met her and who is otherwise famoulsy open-minded).

The same arguments that have been used against Sarah Palin have been used against Conservatives since, well, the beginning of time it seems. She’s stupid. She’s incurious. She’s gaffe-prone. She’s inexperienced. She’s silly. She’s weak.

The Left, of course, claims it wants Sarah Palin to be the nominee, so much so that its acolytes spend every day trashing, bashing and lying about the woman. When you’re trying to lure prey into a trap, the savvy hunter does not erect a neon sign reading “TRAP HERE” while “Thunderstruck” plays on the speakers surrounding said trap. Liberals no more want Sarah Palin running than drive-by CINOs, and it has nothing to do with her intelligence, her image or her record.

They don’t like her in part because they think she’s unsophisticated, and in part because she has no use for them. Palin has already hob-nobbed with the big kids – a dinner Fred Malek hosted for her in Virginia had every big-name name-maker in DC sitting around the table. There are big-money bundlers she already has in her hip pocket who are unknowns in the outside world, in part because said bundlers know that they can raise a king’s ransom if she throws her hat in the ring. The Other Guys do not inspire such confidence.

Need I repeat:

Romney = Romneycare, flip-flopper on abortion

Newt = Park bench with Nancy on climate change

Pawlenty = Unvetted

Huck = Too religious-conservative (not fair, but true), inspries disdain among a large swath of the Tea Party/fiscal/law&order Conservative crowd

And so on. You could partake in this same exercise with Palin, save for this caveat: she fights back, and when she does, people listen. When the rubber meets the road, it’s a small minority of people who will vote for Fred-6 over Sarah Palin because they don’t like her accent, her show or the media circus that follows her everywhere she goes.

==

I could be dead wrong, but of course I am not.

George Will doesn’t like her, but Will certainly gave Fred-6 a lot more room to grow, even though I don’t need to have the man over for dinner to know that he’s not thoughtful (unless mercenary calculation is a synonymn for thoughtful), and his intelligence is up for debate – I wanna see a report card, a transcript and an explanation about these 57 states.

God knows Peggy Noonan hates her, but Noonan endorsed – yes, endorsed – Fred-6 for POTUS.

David Brooks hates her, but he was two knee-pads short of fellating Fred-6 and his well-creased pants as they discussed Nibeunhaer Niebuhr [lulzotastic gaffinius].

Mona Charen doesn’t like her, and published a hitpiece at NRO explaining as much. Who is Mona Charen? Most people who don’t read National Review didn’t know either, but like Parker before her, Charen got some very easy name recognition by bashing Palin.

Charles Krauthammer is skeptical, but he recently suggested we arm South Korea and Japan with a nuclear arsenal, so – just as with Will – the current Ent of Conservatism is as guilty as anyone of seeing his judgment languish in the DC Bubble. I still like Charles, don’t get me wrong, but …

Opinion-wise, who does like her? Rush, Levin, and Hannity for starters. Beck’s harder to tell, and Laura Ingraham seems to jump on-ship and off by the day. Ann Coulter loves her, as does David Kahane, Jonah Goldberg, Mark Steyn and a treasure-trove of Conservative bloggers.

So, on the one hand we have Conservative pundits who are a) willing to concede a point that is far-from-proven to the base, that Fred-6 is thoughtful and iintelligent while b) unwilling to say anything snark-free and, um, nice about the one person that fires up the base necessary to win an election for any GOPer.

On the other hand, we have – literally – the most popular Conservative opinion-makers in the country on-board, begging and pleading for soft Conservatives to get behind Gov. Palin. People like Rush and Levin didn’t get to where they are by being stupid, nor did they get there by backing untested, long-shot candidates. They don’t care about the cocktail circuit – like me, they want to see an end of Fred-6’s reign.

That’s all I want – the end of Fred-6’s reign. From there, he can go back to, um, teaching The Law, or overseeing the UN, or whatever it is that people like Fred-6 do, mainly taking other people’s money and avoiding work.

But that’s another issue for another day.

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About godsowncrunk
I'm King B, the originator of the Jellywhite lyrical style and god's own crunk.

2 Responses to The Hopeful Fall of the House Fred-6

  1. Eric says:

    If the only people voting were the ones who watch fox and read conservative blogs, I’d agree with you. But this nation has a slew of independent voters who don’t make political decisions like you and I do. Palin does not, has not, will not appeal to those people, especially in contrast to Obama (I don’t even think she could beat Biden in a national election). The nastier she gets, the more bombs she throws, the snarkier she snarks, the more she is going to sound like Rush Limbaugh running for POTUS, and she is going to push away voters, just like her and McCain did by trying to make Obama look like a terrorist sympathizer. Obama will play the calm mature gentleman, letting the media do his dirty work, try to stay as low profile as possible, and give Palin ample rope with which to hang herself. He can beat her using the exact same technique he used to beat McCain, by refusing to engage and forcing her to crank up the volume and intensity until she sounds like a crazy person. And mark my words, she will walk right into it, with her fans cheering, and blow what should be an easy election for conservatives to win. And I say that as somebody who would undoubtedly vote for her in said election.

    I can’t claim yet that Pawlenty is the right guy, but where I disagree with you is that he has to be able to inspire the base in the same way Palin does in order to win. All he has to do is be conservative enough to keep the base from defecting or staying home. And short of another McCain or Romney, most won’t stay home. The way Obama gets beat in 2012 is to run against a candidate who can bring the conservative base to the voting booth, and who can also convince independents they are smart an serious-minded (within limits, policy really doesn’t seem to matter much to independents, at least not during the election). Such a candidate may not run (Paul Ryan could do it, but honorably doesn’t want to run with young children in his household), but I just don’t see how Palin, with her set of skills, ever expands her popularity much beyond where it is now.

    I honestly wish she wouldn’t run, because I think she’ll make it much harder for a Republican who beats her in the primaries to get any support from the base, even if they are reasonably conservative. But I agree with you that she’s gonna do it, and if she comes out with a well thought out policy agenda in the primaries I’ll likely support her (I’ll be surprised if she does so in a coherent way; I think she’ll try to make a case for being the conservative values candidate, which is not the same as being the conservative policy candidate), but it feels a lot like supporting the longest shot entry in the Kentucky Derby.

    • godsowncrunk says:

      “The way Obama gets beat in 2012 is to run against a candidate who can bring the conservative base to the voting booth, and who can also convince independents they are smart an serious-minded (within limits, policy really doesn’t seem to matter much to independents, at least not during the election). Such a candidate may not run (Paul Ryan could do it, but honorably doesn’t want to run with young children in his household), but I just don’t see how Palin, with her set of skills, ever expands her popularity much beyond where it is now.”

      Excellent analysis – believe me, I hope you’re right.

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